Tiger Woods: Why He's Still the Favorite to Win the 2011 Masters

No, he’s not playing his best right now, although he isn’t playing quite as poorly as some pundits would have you believe.

Facts are facts: Tiger Woods hasn’t won a tournament of any kind since November of 2009 and hasn’t won a major since the U.S. Open in 2008.

This is Augusta National, and Tiger always plays well here. His first Masters as a professional came in 1997. He has won the tournament four times.

But just for fun, let’s not count those wins.

Not including his four championships, Woods has an average finish of just better than ninth at Augusta.

In 2010, the Masters was the first tournament Woods played in since his Thanksgiving 2009 car accident. In a matter of hours, Woods went from the world’s best golfer and maybe the world’s most identifiable athlete (certainly America’s) to a popular punchline.

Although Tiger hadn’t played competitively in more than four months, he managed to finish tied for fourth. He has played more in the last year—his game is sharper now.

No, he is not performing up to his high standards, but we’ve seen this before.

Gary Player won the Masters in 1978 at 42 years old. He hadn’t won a major or anything else on tour since 1974. Jack Nicklaus was 46 in 1986 when he won the Masters. He hadn’t won a major since 1980 and had only won two tournaments in the subsequent years.

Will we see this scene again in 2011?
David Cannon/Getty Images

But to find the greatest parallel, we need to look back only one year.

Phil Mickelson won the 2010 Masters despite not playing particularly strong that season. The Masters was the only tournament Mickelson won in 2010. That was the first season since 2003 where Mickelson failed to win multiple tournaments. Although he had won eight tournaments, he hadn’t won a major since the 2006 Masters.

The other significant parallel is the off-course problems of both Mickelson and Woods.

No, the problems aren’t the same. Mickelson’s wife and mother were diagnosed with breast cancer while Woods had his extra-marital affairs become public knowledge. Mickelson is definitely the more sympathetic character, but golf was not the first thing on his mind—just like it’s not the first thing on Woods’ mind.

Player, Nicklaus, Mickelson and Woods all have won thing in common: They have all enjoyed great success at Augusta. It brings out something special in all of them. It’s something that can’t be explained with statistics, but it’s there.

People who play well at Augusta once frequently do so for their entire careers. Through 2010, 74 Masters have been played. Sixteen players have won at least two Green Jackets, and those 16 players account for 45 of the 74 championships.

During last weekend’s Shell Houston Open, NBC color man Johnny Miller labeled Mickelson the favorite to win the Masters. Mickelson is certainly on a short list—he looked great in winning his first tournament since the 2010 Masters.

Tiger Woods winning his first major, the 1997 Masters
Stephen Munday/Getty Images

For the first time since right before the 1997 Masters, Mickelson is ranked ahead of Woods in the world rankings. Does anyone remember what happened there?

Also, remember that this is not the first time that we have seen Woods struggle to win majors. After winning in 1997, Woods wouldn't win another major until the 1999 PGA Championship, a period of 10 majors. After faltering at the 2000 Masters, Woods won the next four majors, completing the "Tiger Slam."

After winning the 2002 U.S. Open, Woods did not win a major until the 2005 Masters—again, a period of 10 majors. The 2005 Masters was the first of two majors that Woods would win in 2005—he won two majors again in 2006.

Now, here we are, and 10 majors have been played since Tiger's last major victory. Granted, he has only played in eight, as he missed the final two majors of 2008 with a knee injury. Augusta is a tough course, but it is a place where struggling great players can find their game and win—it has happened before.

We will never see the era of 2000-2002 again. In those years, if Tiger was in the tournament, the only fair bet was him against the entire field. There are too many young, talented players now that weren't around then.

That doesn't mean that Tiger is not a good bet. He is indeed the best bet, and will be for quite some time.

Source-bleacherreport.com